The Federal Tariff Service (FTS) has passed a basic version of Russia's consolidated power balance for 2008. The FTS forecasts that power consumption in the country (with account for losses in power lines) will amount to 1,033 billion kWh. This is 4.5% higher than the forecast for 2007 (988.9 billion kWh). The FTS has not yet calculated the expected amount of power to be generated. At the moment, the service in cooperation with RAO UES of Russia is working to predict with greater precision the future performance of OJSC Federal Hydropower Generating Company (FHGC) (on the basis of the economic situation in the hydroelectric power sector and a forecast for water resources in reservoirs at the beginning of 2008) and a number of thermoelectric power plants of RAO UES of Russia (based on RAO UES's investment programme). The FTS will publish the final version of the consolidated power balance before 1 October 2007. Actual (contrary to predicted) power consumption in the first half of 2006 amounted to 488.2 billion kWh, according to RAO UES of Russia. In the first half of 2007 it is expected, based on the information available, to total 492.4 billion kWh. Thus, actual growth in power consumption in the first half of 2007 amounted to just 1%, but this figure is explained, as the RAO UES of Russia management has announced many times already, with unexpectedly warm weather last winter. At the same time, the amount of power generated in January through June 2007 totalled 506 billion kWh (100.8% on January through June 2006), according to the Ministry of Industry and Energy. The primary target of the power balance is to help power industry specialists to achieve power generation growth rates that would be faster than power consumption growth rates. To draw up the power balance, regional divisions of the FTS annually collect information on industrial consumers, households and local power companies and analyse figures from the wholesale electric power market and information on power export and import. Proceeding from the collected data, FTS specialists make a forecast of power generation and consumption for the next year in every specific region. Figures from every constituent subject of the federation are then delivered to the FTS board which finally approves the consolidated balance for the entire country. Based on that document, federal and regional authorities can correct their tariff policies. Growth in regulated prices for households will amount to 12% in 2008 and 12.5% in 2009; for industries, prices are determined on the wholesale electric power market and they are usually higher than regulated ones (15% of power will be sold at market-based prices from 1 January, 2008, and 25% from 1 July, 2008). Besides, the FTS power balance forecast may be used as a basis to introduce amendments to the programme for building power facilities and to determine regional fuel balances and the obligatory amounts of supplies for providers of last resort. |
